Grinchless in Seattle

Washington's retailers, like those around the country, are dreaming of a green Christmas this year. They hope a 2009 year-end shopping spree will erase memories of last year's disastrous and snowy holiday season.

Their wish is that tightfisted consumers will open their wallets more freely, allowing retailers to rescue what has been a rocky year.

It's a tall order given that we're in the worst economic crisis in decades, one that's littered with record-setting numbers of foreclosures, bankruptcies and layoffs. For most of 2009, many consumers have lived in uncertainty, afraid of losing their jobs and not being able to pay their bills. They've cut their spending drastically, ratcheted back their use of credit and, where possible, increased their savings.

Retailers take comfort in rising consumer confidence and broadening conviction that this season will be better than last year. (Could it possibly be worse?) They point to a 14.3 percent jump in Seattle area home sales in September (the fourth consecutive month of year-over-year gains, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service) and the declaration by many economists that we've pulled out of "the Great Recession" as a good reason to believe in a little holiday magic. In Bellevue, more shoppers are expected to flood the streets as people throughout the region come to see the new luxury retailers, especially Neiman Marcus, which opened in September at The Bravern.

"We see an uptick in holiday revenues in the retail sector that recaptures half of last year's loss," says retail consultant Dick Outcalt of Outcalt & Johnson Retail Strategists LLC in Seattle. He also believes "frugal fatigue" will beset consumers and drive them back to the holiday gift-giving mode.

"People will still do Christmas," says Outcalt's partner, Patricia Johnson. "The caveat is that one way or another, banks and vendors supplying product have to allow retailers to buy" merchandise so retailers can stock their shelves. Some stores report that credit is so tight, they can't raise the money to build up inventory for the holiday season.

Traditionally, retailers make their profits during November and December. A year ago, retailers scraped by, by offering deep discounts to consumers hit with layoffs, company cutbacks, housing woes and tight credit. Compounding 2008's doldrums in Seattle were wet weather and snowstorms that shut down streets and surrounding cities, eliminating several prime shopping days in an already dismal season.

This year will be different, analysts

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