Peak Performance

When pushing for the summit of Mount Everest, climbers know that accurate weather information can mean the difference between life and death. Many of these climbers get that vital data from a man they will never meet and someone who has never been to the Himalayas himself. Michael Fagin forecasts the weather conditions on the worlds highest peak from his home office in Redmond.

The Seattle area has long been a haven for adventure seekers looking to reach the worlds apex. Three of the largest companies in the businessAlpine Ascents International, RMI Expeditions and International Mountain Guidescall the area home. Interest in climbing Mount Everest continues to grow as hundreds of climbers from numerous organized treks, including dozens of customers with the Washington-based companies, flock to the foothills of Nepal and Tibet annually.

In 2003, after years of predicting Washington weather conditions for local groups like The Mountaineers, a Seattle-based outdoor exploration group, Fagin introduced himself to area Everest guides and started creating detailed weather forecasts for them. He provides very reasonably priced daily predictions for each expedition throughout the course of a trip, but he wont disclose the exact cost.

Fagin uses six models to create a weighted forecast with what he considers the best accuracy rate. Unlike other services, Fagin explains all potential weather scenarios to his clients. For example, if one model predicts 10 mph gusts but another suggests 60 mph winds, he will explain the genesis of both possibilities before offering his best forecast.

International Mountain Guides co-owner Eric Simonson says his team makes the final decision about whether to launch a summit bid, but he considers Fagins service to be valuable information that serves the process.

These summit bids will take place over three to four days, and when you pull the trigger and launch the group, it is a big commitment of money and time, Simonson explains. You may only have one opportunity. If you go up and weather is bad and you have to bring everybody down, its not like you can turn around and run back up.

With hundreds of people relying on his weather forecasts for their safety, Fagin feels considerable pressure to come up with accurate results.

My goal is to keep them out of harms way, he says. Its an intense period. The best part is having everyone get to the top and down safely.

Fagin tracks every teams progress mainly through email discussions with the expedition leaders and by reading detailed expedition blogs. He works with two of the Seattle-area climbing companies annually, generally assisting a couple of teams that come together for one shot at the summit. He sometimes forecasts for operations based in New York and the United Kingdom, as well.

Since the Everest climbing season lasts only from April to May and from September to October, Fagin also provides forecasts for area school districts and works with engineers studying the effects of stormwater runoff. He crafts predictions for The Mountaineers during the rest of the year.

Still, nothing can top the feeling of having helped someone reach the pinnacle of the world successfully and safely. When that happens, Fagin says, hes on top of the world.