The Mandate of Growth

When I first came to Seattle in 1989, I enjoyed Seattle Times columnist Emmett Watsons rants about the swarm of Californians invading this impressionable region. Watson called for a Lesser Seattle campaign whose central tenet was also the name of a fictitious organization known as KBO (Keep the Bastards Out).

Watson could just as well have called on the sun to stop rising. Since 1990, Washington states population has climbed by more than 40 percentto 6.8 million. About 4.5 million of those residents were crammed into the Puget Sound region by 2010. Now, two professors from the University of Utahs Metropolitan Research Center predict that Seattle area number will be 6.3 million by 2040, giving our region the population density of Japan.

For the most part, the additional population will be good news for local residents, the economy and the environment. City dwellers use far less energy per capita, for example, than those who live in the suburbs or in rural areas. A greater population can better support the arts institutions, fine restaurants and other amenities that attract talent. Smart people rubbing shoulders in coffee shops, universities and businesses come up with better ideas and turn them into new startups more quickly.

The presence of talent in the region, meanwhile, encourages companies like Facebook, Google and Novo Nordisk to establish operations here and create new jobs. Marcus & Millichap, a real estate research firm, for example, ranked Seattle as the nations third-strongest market for retail investments, thanks to strong job growth. The firm says the Puget Sound region added 44,000 jobs last year and is likely to add 52,000 more jobs this year.

More jobs attract more workers generating more demand for housing and services. This phenomenon helps to explain the 10,000 apartments that developers are currently building in King and Snohomish counties. Commercial real estate is also showing renewed strength, with new commercial offices being built on spec for the first time since the financial crisis.

Its wonderful to witness this positive cycle of jobs attracting workers who generate demand and make the Northwest more vibrant. But with increased density also comes increased risk. Witness the crime-plagued New York of the 1970s and early 1980s. It took three strong mayors and some tough policies to bring the city back from the edge. We, too, are beginning to see big-city problems such as crime, poor schools and traffic gridlock. Were losing open space and the Sound is suffering from the increased runoff that is the result of expanded development. If these issues arent properly addressed, the positive cycle of population growth could turn negative. We may yet get our Lesser Seattle. Only it wont be the smaller city Emmett Watson wanted. It could just mean a lower standard of living.