Japanese Tsunami Toll Could Reach As High As 50,000, Twice Current Estimates; Need For Temporary Housing May be Opportunity for Prefab Manufacturers

The economic impact of Japan’s earthquake and tsunami continue to reverberate across the globe with many auto and electronics companies facing slowdowns because of shortages from critical suppliers in Japan.

But the human toll is also rising. Not only is there great uncertainty about radiation leakage from the nuclear power plants in Fukushima, but the death toll from the tsunami itself also continues to rise.

I recently met with a former classmate from Japan who helped launch an effort for CRASH Japan, an organization that was among the first to begin delivering supplies to refugees of the tsunami. The organization now has 150 volunteers and is delivering supplies from such organizations as World Vision.

Tim Cole’s day job is at the Tokyo-based Family Forum, a Christian organization that counsels Japanese on family issues. Cole says that while the western media is estimating the number of dead and missing from the Japanese earthquake at about 28,000, the ultimate death toll from the earthquake and tsunami is likely to reach as high as 50,000. He says Japanese authorities are being conservative in counting the dead, only counting those cases in which bodies have been identified. Not counted among the dead and missing are entire towns and villages that have been wiped out, taking with them all records of residents. If everybody in a family is dead and nobody reports a family member is missing, that family is not counted in the statistics.

Cole says relief organizations in Japan now have more than enough clothes and blankets, although there is still demand for athletic bags for the displaced to store their few belongings in while they stay at shelters. But the real need, he says, is for temporary housing for the quarter million people displaced by the tsunami. He sees an opportunity for organizations in Washington and Oregon to provide simple, low-cost housing in Japan–particularly if the housing can be designed so it can be built for less than $40,000 a unit. We have great designers in Washington doing cool things with prefab units. Is there an opportunity here?