Health Care Reform: Outlook Hazy

Just when it looked like Congress was getting ready to pass a health care reform bill, things changed with the Jan. 19 election of GOP Sen. Scott Brown of Massachusetts. With that, Senate Democrats lost their 60-vote filibuster-proof majority believed to be necessary to pass health care legislation.

Prior to the Massachusetts election, the U.S. House had negotiated with special interest groups, including unions that objected to a provision in the Senate bill that would levy an excise tax on high-cost so-called “Cadillac” benefit plans. House members don’t agree with all of the Senate bill. But instead of revising it and sending it back for a revote to the Senate that no longer has the dominant Democrat majority, the House may approve itwith a “sidecar” package of revisions intended to be passed through the reconciliation process. In reconciliation, Democrats would only need a simple majority of 51 votes (which they currently have) to pass legislation.

Meanwhile, President Obama allowed health care reform to take the backseat to the economy during his Jan. 27 State of the Union address. Instead of urging a swift passage of a health care reform, he asked Republicans and Democrats to come forward with any new ideas. In an effort to carry the dialogue further, he has now proposed an open summit on reform to be held on Feb. 25. Critics predict that Republicans will decline the president’s invitation, urging him instead to continue focusing on jobs and economy revival solutions.

This raises the question of what will happen nextand when.

Is health care reform dead? The short answer is: No. But the long answer is more complicated.

Some predict that minimal reform will happenin the form of insurance reform instead of health care reform. That means passage of provisions that address insurance issuessuch as making sure those with pre-existing conditions still have access to insurance, eliminating lifetime expense maximum limits, and others that have already been agreed to by all parties. Such provisions will aim to ensure better protection for the people. However, if those provisions aren’t counter-balanced with other reforms, that spread the risk to insurance carriersincluding a mandate that everyone has health insurancecosts will continue to increase.

Stay tuned.